I've been sitting shiva for the Cowboys, but I'm back and it looks like things have gone basically to form, Presidential primary-wise. Clinton probably has a bit of an edge over Obama going into Super Tuesday, but Obama's entirely capable of closing that gap. It remains to be seen how Edwards votes split up, but Obama probably can't count on much more than a slight edge there. He needs to win over most of the undecideds, score a few defections, and hope that he continues to bring in new voters.
McCain is touted as the frontrunner, and the perception is that Giuliani's exit will help him (and Huckabee's continued presence will hurt Romney). As noted by Tom Bevan (via Ross Douthat), though, in Florida Giuliani supporters (by a thin margin) list Romney as their second choice, while Huckabee voters prefer McCain over Romney by a wide margin. It's almost as if no one knows what they're doing! Or supposed to be doing.
Pat Buchanan(!) and Rachel Maddows noted on MSNBC's coverage that one real bright spot for Dems in Florida is that 1.7 million people came out to vote even though the candidates didn't campaign, and Florida gets no delegates as punishment for their line-cutting. The GOP turned out 1.9 million for a hotly contested, significant primary(maybe, in retrospect, the significant primary). This bodes well for whoever the Democrats nominate, if they can maintain the enthusiasm.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Empty Spaces
I'm not in a formalist mood these days, I guess, because the Coen Brothers' latest film, No Country for Old Men, based on Cormac McCarthy's novel, struck me as fantastic-looking and beautifully performed, yet strangely unsatisfying, devoid of humanity.
As much as it is about anything, No Country is about fate. Relentless, remorseless fate, sweeping humanity along a "dismal tide." But the film has nothing more to say about fate than that fate is and that free will is probably, at best, an illusion. There are two coin tosses in the film. In one, a man plays the toss, but doesn't know the stakes. In another, a woman, knowing the stakes, refuses to play. Who wins, who loses? Who lives, who dies? Fate decides.
Fate is embodied in Anton Chigurh (Javier Bardem), a relentless, remorseless killer whose quirk is that he disdains ordinary guns for a hydraulic air gun. The breath of death, if you will. More Rutger Hauer's Hitcher than Hannibal Lecter, Chigurh appears from nowhere in west Texas and begins killing and does not stop, and when local Llewelyn Moss (Josh Brolin) stumbles across the two million dollars that survived a drug deal shootout, Chigurh tracks him with a deliberateness that is more fitting to the walking dead than a live assassin; indeed, by the film's end Chigurh acquires a shuffling gait of which George Romero would be proud.
Did Moss--floating in on the tide--have a choice in his fate? Maybe, but even he doesn't believe it, telling his wife: "Things happen. Can't take 'em back." And once he starts his path is set. He believes, at times, that he can choose his destiny, but over and over it is made clear that he cannot. He's even told it. But he doesn't know it, and he never learns it.
Sheriff Ed Tom Bell (Tommy Lee Jones) has grown old enough--by his own devices, maybe, but probably by chance--to learn it, and he oversees the proceedings with the detachment of one who is unhappy about life's meaninglessness, but who has come to terms with it. Invited to accompany investigative revisits to crime scenes, he demurs, seeing little point in combing over the petty details of life's atrocities. Bell sees the tide coming in, and he'd best prefer not to get wet by it.
There is a cold calculation to the film that I can't help feeling let down by. It is a marvel, in a way, filled with exquisite moments, Coenesque touches, as in the shot of smoky light filtering slowly through a blown-out hole. The tension is incredible, and achieved through exquisite timing. The actors, Jones in particular, are mesmerizing. And at the heart of it all is an empty space.
As much as it is about anything, No Country is about fate. Relentless, remorseless fate, sweeping humanity along a "dismal tide." But the film has nothing more to say about fate than that fate is and that free will is probably, at best, an illusion. There are two coin tosses in the film. In one, a man plays the toss, but doesn't know the stakes. In another, a woman, knowing the stakes, refuses to play. Who wins, who loses? Who lives, who dies? Fate decides.
Fate is embodied in Anton Chigurh (Javier Bardem), a relentless, remorseless killer whose quirk is that he disdains ordinary guns for a hydraulic air gun. The breath of death, if you will. More Rutger Hauer's Hitcher than Hannibal Lecter, Chigurh appears from nowhere in west Texas and begins killing and does not stop, and when local Llewelyn Moss (Josh Brolin) stumbles across the two million dollars that survived a drug deal shootout, Chigurh tracks him with a deliberateness that is more fitting to the walking dead than a live assassin; indeed, by the film's end Chigurh acquires a shuffling gait of which George Romero would be proud.
Did Moss--floating in on the tide--have a choice in his fate? Maybe, but even he doesn't believe it, telling his wife: "Things happen. Can't take 'em back." And once he starts his path is set. He believes, at times, that he can choose his destiny, but over and over it is made clear that he cannot. He's even told it. But he doesn't know it, and he never learns it.
Sheriff Ed Tom Bell (Tommy Lee Jones) has grown old enough--by his own devices, maybe, but probably by chance--to learn it, and he oversees the proceedings with the detachment of one who is unhappy about life's meaninglessness, but who has come to terms with it. Invited to accompany investigative revisits to crime scenes, he demurs, seeing little point in combing over the petty details of life's atrocities. Bell sees the tide coming in, and he'd best prefer not to get wet by it.
There is a cold calculation to the film that I can't help feeling let down by. It is a marvel, in a way, filled with exquisite moments, Coenesque touches, as in the shot of smoky light filtering slowly through a blown-out hole. The tension is incredible, and achieved through exquisite timing. The actors, Jones in particular, are mesmerizing. And at the heart of it all is an empty space.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Different molehills, different mountains
So the Obama juggernaut narrative has gone into the Clinton comeback narrative. That will get plenty of play over the next few days, so for now I'll note other interesting tidbits:
Democrats drew about 280,000 voters, a 29% increase over 2004's 217,000. It looks like Republicans will hit about 240,000, about the same as 2000's 236,000. This continues to be a positive trend for Democrats in general; Democrats are energized by their candidates, Republicans are not, except maybe forChuck Norris Mike Huckabee, and that's only a slice of the pie.
Independents constituted 37% of the vote in the Republican primary, of course helping McCain to win; they were actually a bigger force in the Democratic primary, constituting 44% of the vote (with 54% identifying as Democrats), and voting more for Obama but obviously not by a large enough margin.
This result hurts Edwards more than anyone; he'll surely hang in until South Carolina, but the longer Obama and Clinton drag this out, the more he looks like a third wheel. This result probably kills any chance of him moving past Clinton into a fight with Obama.
McCain is up, but given the Democratic result, it would be crazy to call him the winner. Romney will push hard to turn things around in Michigan, and he certainly has the resources to do it.
Fred Thompson received a hilarious 1%. Why did he do this again?
Democrats drew about 280,000 voters, a 29% increase over 2004's 217,000. It looks like Republicans will hit about 240,000, about the same as 2000's 236,000. This continues to be a positive trend for Democrats in general; Democrats are energized by their candidates, Republicans are not, except maybe for
Independents constituted 37% of the vote in the Republican primary, of course helping McCain to win; they were actually a bigger force in the Democratic primary, constituting 44% of the vote (with 54% identifying as Democrats), and voting more for Obama but obviously not by a large enough margin.
This result hurts Edwards more than anyone; he'll surely hang in until South Carolina, but the longer Obama and Clinton drag this out, the more he looks like a third wheel. This result probably kills any chance of him moving past Clinton into a fight with Obama.
McCain is up, but given the Democratic result, it would be crazy to call him the winner. Romney will push hard to turn things around in Michigan, and he certainly has the resources to do it.
Fred Thompson received a hilarious 1%. Why did he do this again?
Monday, January 7, 2008
Mountains out of a Molehill
Some takeaways from the Iowa caucuses on the way to New Hampshire:
Barack Obama won more than Hilary Clinton lost. Overall, the Democrats turned out about 220,000 voters, an impressive jump from the 124,000 of 2004. Tellingly, there was not a significant increase in independents voting in the Democratic caucuses. In 2004, the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats was 79%; in 2008, that number fell, but only to 76%. If that trend is any way indicative of sentiment nationwide (and of course, it may not be), that bodes well for Democrats in general, not just Obama, because self-identifying independents are much more likely to be fickle in their voting habits. It will be interesting to see if Iowa was a one-off or if the next few primaries see a similar swelling of Democratic ranks. My guess: they swell, but not to the extent they did in Iowa.
If Obama wins New Hampshire, and strong indications are he will, he is in great shape, because it will indicate that Iowa was not a fluke, it will show he can draw white voters in at least two (dissimilar) states, and he will have tapped into independent voters either as independents or, more significantly, drawn them into the Democratic fold. Clinton needs to win a primary before Super Tuesday or she is probably done; it's too early to rule that out, as the Clintons have been nothing if not resilient. Before New Hampshire there was still some doubt about Obama's ability to hold the black vote. I expect in South Carolina we will see that he can, because although black voters admire the Clintons, they will now see Obama as viable, not token.
Edwards still seems unlikely to overtake Obama but could conceivably pass Clinton; at this point he appears to be playing for second, positioning himself as the credible alternative should Obama falter along the way, or should voter concerns rise concerning electability.
The Republican campaign is messier, although it could clean itself up quickly if the right things occur. McCain, who appeared dead in the water just a few months ago, is in a good position to mess up my prediction. If he wins New Hampshire over Romney, he can position himself both as the choice for the Republican establishment and for the independent. The biggest problem for McCain in New Hampshire is that he is probably competing with Barack Obama for independents and Obama has the momentum of Iowa working for him. If Romney fails to take New Hampshire, he needs to win Michigan or he will be done. His money allows him to hang around, but without a win before Super Tuesday it would be pointless. Huckabee is still a very long shot, as much of his Iowa win was driven by evangelicals (as his complete lack of a bump in New Hampshire shows), he still lacks funds, and is not supported by the GOP establishment. His form of identity politics is too narrowly tailored for this particular campaign, even though he is, it must be said, making the most of it. Giuliani "wins" by no one else winning; as long as no one emerges as a clear frontrunner, he can justify staying in the race, although his one-note campaign seems to be wearing even on Republicans. It's not clear to me why Fred Thompson is running, as he doesn't appear to be that interested in it. Ron Paul might do well enough to make his acolytes believe he can win, but they'll be wrong. If even they see the writing on the wall, they'll blame his failure on the media.
The upshot is, after tomorrow, Clinton is likely to be in desperation mode (moreso), and the Republicans will still be a big bunch of Huh?
Barack Obama won more than Hilary Clinton lost. Overall, the Democrats turned out about 220,000 voters, an impressive jump from the 124,000 of 2004. Tellingly, there was not a significant increase in independents voting in the Democratic caucuses. In 2004, the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats was 79%; in 2008, that number fell, but only to 76%. If that trend is any way indicative of sentiment nationwide (and of course, it may not be), that bodes well for Democrats in general, not just Obama, because self-identifying independents are much more likely to be fickle in their voting habits. It will be interesting to see if Iowa was a one-off or if the next few primaries see a similar swelling of Democratic ranks. My guess: they swell, but not to the extent they did in Iowa.
If Obama wins New Hampshire, and strong indications are he will, he is in great shape, because it will indicate that Iowa was not a fluke, it will show he can draw white voters in at least two (dissimilar) states, and he will have tapped into independent voters either as independents or, more significantly, drawn them into the Democratic fold. Clinton needs to win a primary before Super Tuesday or she is probably done; it's too early to rule that out, as the Clintons have been nothing if not resilient. Before New Hampshire there was still some doubt about Obama's ability to hold the black vote. I expect in South Carolina we will see that he can, because although black voters admire the Clintons, they will now see Obama as viable, not token.
Edwards still seems unlikely to overtake Obama but could conceivably pass Clinton; at this point he appears to be playing for second, positioning himself as the credible alternative should Obama falter along the way, or should voter concerns rise concerning electability.
The Republican campaign is messier, although it could clean itself up quickly if the right things occur. McCain, who appeared dead in the water just a few months ago, is in a good position to mess up my prediction. If he wins New Hampshire over Romney, he can position himself both as the choice for the Republican establishment and for the independent. The biggest problem for McCain in New Hampshire is that he is probably competing with Barack Obama for independents and Obama has the momentum of Iowa working for him. If Romney fails to take New Hampshire, he needs to win Michigan or he will be done. His money allows him to hang around, but without a win before Super Tuesday it would be pointless. Huckabee is still a very long shot, as much of his Iowa win was driven by evangelicals (as his complete lack of a bump in New Hampshire shows), he still lacks funds, and is not supported by the GOP establishment. His form of identity politics is too narrowly tailored for this particular campaign, even though he is, it must be said, making the most of it. Giuliani "wins" by no one else winning; as long as no one emerges as a clear frontrunner, he can justify staying in the race, although his one-note campaign seems to be wearing even on Republicans. It's not clear to me why Fred Thompson is running, as he doesn't appear to be that interested in it. Ron Paul might do well enough to make his acolytes believe he can win, but they'll be wrong. If even they see the writing on the wall, they'll blame his failure on the media.
The upshot is, after tomorrow, Clinton is likely to be in desperation mode (moreso), and the Republicans will still be a big bunch of Huh?
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Don't hold me to these
Following the example of the Millman Prophecies, only with less perspicacity and more sports, herewith my predictions for 2008:
Politics/World Affairs
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney gain their respective party nominations. Obama wins the general election. There is no October surprise. Bloomberg does not run as a third-party candidate.
The investigation into the destruction of the CIA tapes does result in indictments, but only of minor figures. Bush will pardon anyone implicated before his term runs out (this prediction goes slightly into 2009, yes).
Pakistan eventually gets around to holding elections, and Musharraf wins them, but nobody believes they weren't rigged. U.S. policy continues to vaguely support Musharraf because no one can think of anything else to do, and there is at least one serious cross-border incident involving U.S. forces/missiles that Pakistan has to pretend it didn't know about in advance.
The Israel-Palestinian negotiations grind into nothing. No one is shocked. Olmert and Abbas both become, if possible, more marginalized.
Sports
In football (American), the New England Patriots will continue to irritate the self-righteous and the '72 Dolphins by winning the Super Bowl (over the Dallas Cowboys) and finishing 19-0. And Bill Belichick will still be boring about it.
In football (world), Manchester United will again win the Premier League, Rafa Benitez will be fired from Liverpool, and my team, Tottenham, will not be relegated, but they will also fail to qualify for European play. Barcelona regains the Champions League title. Croatia will impress by reaching the finals of Euro 2008, but they will lose to Italy. Marco Materazzi is not headbutted by anyone.
In baseball, the Yankees eventually acquire Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez has another MVP year in the face of Yankee fan quasi-disdain, and they still get knocked out of the playoffs. The Cleveland Indians win the World Series over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Miscellaneous
The writers' strike will drag on into early summer. The directors will reach an agreement with the studios, but it will fail to push the writers into a deal. When the actors are poised to go on strike, the studios will cave.
In spite of its stellar cast, Iron Man is a disappointment. Luckily, The Dark Knight is not at all disappointing.
Politics/World Affairs
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney gain their respective party nominations. Obama wins the general election. There is no October surprise. Bloomberg does not run as a third-party candidate.
The investigation into the destruction of the CIA tapes does result in indictments, but only of minor figures. Bush will pardon anyone implicated before his term runs out (this prediction goes slightly into 2009, yes).
Pakistan eventually gets around to holding elections, and Musharraf wins them, but nobody believes they weren't rigged. U.S. policy continues to vaguely support Musharraf because no one can think of anything else to do, and there is at least one serious cross-border incident involving U.S. forces/missiles that Pakistan has to pretend it didn't know about in advance.
The Israel-Palestinian negotiations grind into nothing. No one is shocked. Olmert and Abbas both become, if possible, more marginalized.
Sports
In football (American), the New England Patriots will continue to irritate the self-righteous and the '72 Dolphins by winning the Super Bowl (over the Dallas Cowboys) and finishing 19-0. And Bill Belichick will still be boring about it.
In football (world), Manchester United will again win the Premier League, Rafa Benitez will be fired from Liverpool, and my team, Tottenham, will not be relegated, but they will also fail to qualify for European play. Barcelona regains the Champions League title. Croatia will impress by reaching the finals of Euro 2008, but they will lose to Italy. Marco Materazzi is not headbutted by anyone.
In baseball, the Yankees eventually acquire Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez has another MVP year in the face of Yankee fan quasi-disdain, and they still get knocked out of the playoffs. The Cleveland Indians win the World Series over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Miscellaneous
The writers' strike will drag on into early summer. The directors will reach an agreement with the studios, but it will fail to push the writers into a deal. When the actors are poised to go on strike, the studios will cave.
In spite of its stellar cast, Iron Man is a disappointment. Luckily, The Dark Knight is not at all disappointing.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Lasers, eight o'clock, Day One!
I used to blog here. After countless requests (assuming you can't count past two), I am reviving my blogging career. The blog title, as if I needed to explain it, comes from Terry Gilliam's classic Time Bandits (2:55 in).
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