Final Four

I've been sitting shiva for the Cowboys, but I'm back and it looks like things have gone basically to form, Presidential primary-wise. Clinton probably has a bit of an edge over Obama going into Super Tuesday, but Obama's entirely capable of closing that gap. It remains to be seen how Edwards votes split up, but Obama probably can't count on much more than a slight edge there. He needs to win over most of the undecideds, score a few defections, and hope that he continues to bring in new voters.

McCain is touted as the frontrunner, and the perception is that Giuliani's exit will help him (and Huckabee's continued presence will hurt Romney). As noted by Tom Bevan (via Ross Douthat), though, in Florida Giuliani supporters (by a thin margin) list Romney as their second choice, while Huckabee voters prefer McCain over Romney by a wide margin. It's almost as if no one knows what they're doing! Or supposed to be doing.

Pat Buchanan(!) and Rachel Maddows noted on MSNBC's coverage that one real bright spot for Dems in Florida is that 1.7 million people came out to vote even though the candidates didn't campaign, and Florida gets no delegates as punishment for their line-cutting. The GOP turned out 1.9 million for a hotly contested, significant primary(maybe, in retrospect, the significant primary). This bodes well for whoever the Democrats nominate, if they can maintain the enthusiasm.