Mountains out of a Molehill

Some takeaways from the Iowa caucuses on the way to New Hampshire:

Barack Obama won more than Hilary Clinton lost. Overall, the Democrats turned out about 220,000 voters, an impressive jump from the 124,000 of 2004. Tellingly, there was not a significant increase in independents voting in the Democratic caucuses. In 2004, the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats was 79%; in 2008, that number fell, but only to 76%. If that trend is any way indicative of sentiment nationwide (and of course, it may not be), that bodes well for Democrats in general, not just Obama, because self-identifying independents are much more likely to be fickle in their voting habits. It will be interesting to see if Iowa was a one-off or if the next few primaries see a similar swelling of Democratic ranks. My guess: they swell, but not to the extent they did in Iowa.

If Obama wins New Hampshire, and strong indications are he will, he is in great shape, because it will indicate that Iowa was not a fluke, it will show he can draw white voters in at least two (dissimilar) states, and he will have tapped into independent voters either as independents or, more significantly, drawn them into the Democratic fold. Clinton needs to win a primary before Super Tuesday or she is probably done; it's too early to rule that out, as the Clintons have been nothing if not resilient. Before New Hampshire there was still some doubt about Obama's ability to hold the black vote. I expect in South Carolina we will see that he can, because although black voters admire the Clintons, they will now see Obama as viable, not token.

Edwards still seems unlikely to overtake Obama but could conceivably pass Clinton; at this point he appears to be playing for second, positioning himself as the credible alternative should Obama falter along the way, or should voter concerns rise concerning electability.

The Republican campaign is messier, although it could clean itself up quickly if the right things occur. McCain, who appeared dead in the water just a few months ago, is in a good position to mess up my prediction. If he wins New Hampshire over Romney, he can position himself both as the choice for the Republican establishment and for the independent. The biggest problem for McCain in New Hampshire is that he is probably competing with Barack Obama for independents and Obama has the momentum of Iowa working for him. If Romney fails to take New Hampshire, he needs to win Michigan or he will be done. His money allows him to hang around, but without a win before Super Tuesday it would be pointless. Huckabee is still a very long shot, as much of his Iowa win was driven by evangelicals (as his complete lack of a bump in New Hampshire shows), he still lacks funds, and is not supported by the GOP establishment. His form of identity politics is too narrowly tailored for this particular campaign, even though he is, it must be said, making the most of it. Giuliani "wins" by no one else winning; as long as no one emerges as a clear frontrunner, he can justify staying in the race, although his one-note campaign seems to be wearing even on Republicans. It's not clear to me why Fred Thompson is running, as he doesn't appear to be that interested in it. Ron Paul might do well enough to make his acolytes believe he can win, but they'll be wrong. If even they see the writing on the wall, they'll blame his failure on the media.

The upshot is, after tomorrow, Clinton is likely to be in desperation mode (moreso), and the Republicans will still be a big bunch of Huh?